The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2047
- Prev Close: 1.2089
- % chg. over the last day: +0.35%
Yesterday, the euro partially regained its position after a two-day fall. This happened as the dollar index touched the daily moving average. This caused a pause in buying the greenback. The euro has returned to its previous trading range and is likely to stay there until next week.
- Support levels: 1.2023, 1.1952
- Resistance levels: 1.2179, 1.2222
The main scenario for EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range between 1.2101 and 1.2023. Tuesday's northern momentum hardly changed anything. The older timeframes H4 and D1 indicate the likelihood of a further decline since important levels have not been broken. But there is a strong ADX reaction on the H1, which outperforms Monday's bearish momentum. It indicates the likelihood of further growth, which may be limited by the SMA 100 moving average.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.2101, the pair may grow to 1.2179.
- – The Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Feb) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – The ADP United States Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) (Feb) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3921
- Prev Close: 1.3949
- % chg. over the last day: +0.20%
Tuesday hardly changed the direction of the pair. The pullback turned out to be less than in the euro, which indicated the weakening of the bulls in the long term. Important economic data is expected today, including the PMI of the UK services sector reports. Also, the statement of the Minister of Finance Rishi Sunak on the support of the economy will be in focus.
- Support levels: 1.3857, 1.3775
- Resistance levels: 1.3997, 1.4224
The main scenario in GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3857 and 1.3997. The ADX has shown no reaction on the pullback, which indicates a false northward movement. The price on the hourly timeframe and on the H4 is stuck between the moving averages, which indicates an increased likelihood that the pair will stop near the current levels.
Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3997, it may resume its growth. A breakdown of 1.3857 could trigger a further decline.
- – The UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Feb) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 106.66
- Prev Close: 106.86
- % chg. over the last day: +0.19%
The dollar-yen pair continues to grow steadily, despite the decline in the dollar index. At the same time, the pair received additional support from the stock market, where positive trends are observed again. Although the slowdown in growth is very noticeable, there are no signs of a reversal so far.
- Support levels: 105.50, 104.92
- Resistance levels: 106.94, 107.50
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 106.94 – 106.31. In the short term, the pair may stop or go for a correction, as a divergence has formed on the MACD. But the ADX has reacted to a slight gain in the Asian session, which indicates the risk of a breakout of the resistance level. Since the technical signals are mixed, the overall signal is neutral.
An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 106.30. In this case, the pair may return to a decline to 105.50. A breakout of 106.94 could indicate further growth.
- – The ADP United States Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2643
- Prev Close: 1.2633
- % chg. over the last day: -0.08%
On Tuesday, the pair continued to decline, which looked more like a resumption of the southern trend. Oil quotes fell, but this did not prevent the pair from closing in the red, as the oil prices were still higher than in January. It put pressure on the USD/CAD quotes.
- Support levels: 1.2608, 1.2467
- Resistance levels: 1.2745, 1.2763
The main scenario is selling. Tuesday's southern impulse reversed the mid-term direction completely. The price has consolidated below the moving averages, and the ADX has begun to react to the decline again.
Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold above 1.2653, the pair may resume growth to 1.2745.
- – The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – The US Crude Oil Reserves at 17:30 (GMT+2).
by , 2021.03.03
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