This week's main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States. The report will show whether the Fed's series of aggressive rate hikes impact the labor market. The Central Banks of Australia and New Zealand will hold regular meetings, where interest rates are expected to increase. It should also be noted that The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, are scheduled to meet Wednesday at OPEC headquarters in Vienna to agree on production quotas for November. Also, several Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak this week. And there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing and services PMI data, which will indicate global economic trends in key economies.
Monday, October 03
On Monday, traders will mainly focus on the Manufacturing PMI data from different countries. It is expected that the PMI Index in European countries will go even lower than 50, which will be a sign of a recession. Switzerland will update the inflation data, where analysts expect a slight rise in consumer prices. It’s a bank holiday in Australia, China, and Germany.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
- – French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 22:10 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, October 04
The main event on Tuesday will be the decision of the Central Bank of Australia on the interest rate. Australia's central bank is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the speeches by FOMC members, as well as a speech by ECB head Christine Lagarde. It’s a bank holiday in China and Hong Kong.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Tokyo Core CP (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, October 05
Wednesday will bring various statistics for many countries. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Thus, the Central Bank of New Zealand will have the highest interest rate among the major economies. Volatility in currency pairs with the New Zealand dollar will increase. Also, on Wednesday, an important OPEC+ meeting will be held. Earlier, Bloomberg reported that the group would consider cutting production by more than 1 million BPD amid falling oil prices and a highly volatile market. It’s a bank holiday in China.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand Interest Rate Decision at 04:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 04:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – OPEC+ Meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, October 06
On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy. Investors are predicting the ECB's next steps, and this report may provide clues. Investors should also keep a close eye on the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor. The Ministry of Finance of Japan is keeping the 145 level on the USD/JPY currency pair, so any hints of a policy tightening might provide additional support for the Japanese Yen. It’s a bank holiday in China.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks at 03:30 (Tentative);
- – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, October 07
The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and this indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added 250,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7% and wage growth remaining strong. Traders should also keep a close eye on the labor market data in Canada and the speeches of FOMC members, which will give clues as to the future actions of the Fed. It’s a bank holiday in China.
Main events of the day:
- – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2022.10.03
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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