This will be the most economically rich week of the month and maybe of the whole quarter. The world's leading central banks (US Fed, ECB, BoE, SNB, and Norwegian Central Bank) will hold monetary policy meetings where further interest rate hikes are expected. The US inflation data on Tuesday will shed light on the Fed's plans, setting the tone for US indices and stocks for the rest of the year and beyond. Leading European countries will also update inflation data. In addition, several countries will release labor market, Manufacturing PMI, and GDP data.
Monday, December 12
On Monday, investors should be attentive to the economic data from Great Britain. Poor GDP and Industrial production data may encourage central bankers to be less aggressive this week. Investors should also pay attention to the speech of the Governor of the Bank of Canada.
Main events of the day:
- – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:25 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, December 13
On Tuesday, traders will mainly focus on the German and US Consumer Price Index data. Analysts expect US inflation to start slowing and fall from 7.7% to 7.3% y/y. In Germany, consumer prices are also expected to fall. Traders should also be focused on the labor market data in Great Britain.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 13:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, December 14
On Wednesday, all investors' attention will be focused on the Fed Interest Rate Decision. Experts point to a 78% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points. Volatility in currency pairs with US dollars will increase. Investors should also be focused on the UK inflation data. Economists are leaning toward consumer prices showing a slowdown from 11.1% to 10.9%. But there could be surprises in the direction of new growth.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at 00:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Tankan Manufacturing (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Non-Tankan Manufacturing (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
- – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Thursday, December 15
Thursday will also be very busy with economic events. The deteriorating economic outlook is unlikely to stop the Bank of England from raising rates by 50 basis points to 3.5%. The ECB is also expected to raise interest rates by 0.5%. Volatility on currency pairs with the euro and British pound may increase. Traders should also pay attention to the SNB's interest rate decision, which is also going to raise the rate by 0.5%. Also, on Thursday, a lot of macro data is expected from China, which has a strong influence on the Asian market.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – China NBS Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Norwegian Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, December 16
The main event to watch on Friday is the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. Analysts expect the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone to remain the same. But there could be surprises. Rising inflation in Europe may encourage ECB policymakers to continue to raise rates next year. Investors should also keep an eye on the Manufacturing PMI data from many countries, which often determines the health of an economy.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+2);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).
by , 2022.12.12
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Open Account