The economic calendar is quieter this week ahead of the Christmas holidays. The ultra-dovish Bank of Japan is expected to stick with negative interest rates. Canada and Japan will publish the last inflation data of the year, where there could be surprises with a new round of inflationary pressures. In the United States, data on GDP, PCE, the real estate sector, and consumer confidence will give a new insight into the strength of the economy as fears of a recession intensify.
Monday, December 19
On Monday, investors should focus on the Germany Ifo data, which determines the health of the business climate in Germany. Data are expected to be positive.
Main events of the day:
- – Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, December 20
The Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. It is expected that the BoJ will keep its current policy and leave the rate in negative territory. Investors should also pay attention to the RBA meeting minutes, as well as the Chinese central bank's Loan Prime Rate data, which has a significant impact on the Asian market.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2);
- – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, December 21
On Wednesday, investors will focus on inflation data in Canada, where consumer prices are expected to remain unchanged, but there may be surprises. Volatility on currency pairs with the Canadian dollar will increase. The level of consumer confidence in the US should also be the focus of investors. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which significantly impacts oil prices, should also be on the trader's list.
Main events of the day:
- – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Thursday, December 22
On Thursday, investors should keep a close eye on US and UK GDP data for the quarter. The UK economy is expected to contract by 0.2%, while the US is expected to grow. The contraction of the Great Britain economy for the second quarter in a row may indicate the beginning of a technical recession.
Main events of the day:
- – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, December 23
The most important Friday release is the US PCE Price index, which is on the Fed's list of inflation indicators for regulating monetary policy. Japan's inflation data should also be on traders' lists. Also, investors should not miss the data on US Core Durable Goods Orders as well as US New Home Sales. The US Real Estate Market is already in recession, so the new data will allow a more detailed assessment of the real estate market.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
by , 2022.12.19
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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