Regarding economic events this week, inflation data in the Eurozone, Canada, and Japan are the first things to look out for. Canada is expected to continue to see inflationary pressures lower, and the Eurozone is expected to remain unchanged, while Japan is expected to see consumer prices rise. The Eurozone will release revised first-quarter GDP data Tuesday, and economists expect the bloc's economy to grow slightly.
China will release a range of economic data on Tuesday, including reports on retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment rate. As investors are concerned that an aggressive Fed rate hike could trigger a recession in the economy, the speeches of several central bank officials in the coming days will be closely monitored. It is also worth watching the political situation in the US regarding the increase of the national debt limit. The US could default if politicians fail to reach an agreement by June 1st.
Monday, May 15
There are no events on Monday that would significantly affect volatility. Investors should probably analyze the Eurozone economic outlook report. It is also worth paying attention to the speech of the FOMC representatives.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone EU Economic Forecasts at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 16
Various statistics for many countries are expected on Tuesday. Canada will publish inflation data. The annualized inflation rate is expected to decline from 5.9% to 5.5%. Traders should also pay attention to the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom. This indicator is taken into account by the Bank of England to regulate monetary policy. The Eurozone will release revised first-quarter GDP data, and economists expect the bloc's economy to grow by only 0.1%. Also, on Tuesday, China will release a lot of economic data. Economists expect retail sales and industrial production to grow at a strong annual rate while fixed-asset investment will also rise significantly.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Trade Balance (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:05 (GMT+3).
- – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:15 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 17
Wednesday's main event will be the Consumer Price Index data in the Eurozone. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged, but there may be surprises. The main focus is on core inflation data. Volatility on currency pairs with the euro will be elevated. Investors should also pay attention to Japan's GDP data for the quarter as well as a speech by UK central bank governor Bailey. It's a bank holiday in Norway.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 12:50 (GMT+3);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 19
Thursday's main event will be the BoE Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. This report will give clues as to the further trajectory of monetary policy by the Bank of England. The Bank of England's final rate was originally projected to be reached in September, but there may be surprises that the Bank of England hit pause earlier. Traders should also pay attention to the Australian labor market data, which are taken into account by the RBA to adjust monetary policy. Weak data will increase the likelihood of a pause by the RBA. It's a bank holiday in Switzerland, France, Germany, and Norway.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand Producer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand Annual Budget Release at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 12:15 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
- – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 19
Friday's most important release for investors will be Japan's inflation rate data. The Bank of Japan is maintaining an ultra-soft monetary policy to raise the inflation rate to 2%. Analysts predict that Friday's report will indicate that inflation will grow from 3.1% to 3.4% y/y. Volatility in currency pairs with the Japanese yen will increase. Traders should also not miss the speeches of Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.05.15
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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